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Listing of EXPERIMENTAL Products
Product Name Brief Description Submitter Date Entered
Experimental Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues temperature and precipitation outlooks for the Week-2 and 1-month outlook periods. To close the gap- intermediate time scale (i.e., Weeks 3-4) between the 2 week and 1 month forecast time horizons, the CPC developed and solicited comments on the Experimental Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation outlooks. The Temperature outlook has been approved for operational implementation. The precipitation outlook needs additional testing and the experimental comment period has been extended for another year. The objective of the product is to highlight regions where above or below average 2-week mean total precipitation are favored as well as provide advance notice of potential precipitation pattern changes to further assist decision makers in weather and climate sensitive activities in their decisions. Jon Gottschalck 2017-04-18
Experimental Arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds Graphic The anticipated arrival of sustained tropical-storm-force winds from a tropical cyclone is a critical threshold for coastal communities. For example, emergency managers use this information to determine when to begin and complete coastal evacuations, while the public needs to know when to prepare their homes or businesses and get supplies. Once sustained tropical-storm-force winds begin, such preparations usually become too dangerous or difficult. Historically, many decision makers have inferred the arrival of sustained tropical-storm-force winds from NHC products deterministically, without accounting for tropical cyclone track or size uncertainty. The risk in not factoring in these uncertainties is that communities may have less time to prepare if a tropical cyclone speeds up or increases in size beyond NHC initial forecasts. To better meet users needs, NHC has developed a set of prototype graphics that depict when sustained tropical-storm-force winds from an approaching tropical cyclone could arrive at individual locations. The prototype maps were developed and tested using social science techniques, including one-on-one telephone interviews, focus groups, and surveys with emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, and NWS meteorologists to gather opinions on the idea, content, and design of the products. Wayne Presnell 2017-04-17
Proposed Winter Weather and Water Resources Program Products Consolidation for experimental implementation In the Fall of 2016, the HazSimp project proposed the idea of consolidating Winter and Hydrologic products. Two surveys were created which outlined the proposed consolidated/reformatted products. The feedback was overwhelmingly in favor of the consolidation and reformatting. Now, the HazSimp project is formally requesting to consolidate and reformat our Winter and Hydrologic products. Two surveys will be created which outline our proposals for Winter and Hydrology; the surveys will be open for 30-days. Once the comment period closes, a detailed analysis of both surveys will begin. This proposal will reformat all current Winter Weather products (Watches, Warnings and Advisories) to follow a “What”, “Where”, “When”, “Additional Details” and “Precautionary/ Preparedness Actions” order. The proposal will also consolidate Winter Watch and Advisory Precipitation Products and at a subset of offices, consolidate the Lake Effect Snow Warning. This proposal will reformat all Flood Watches, Warnings, and Advisories to follow a “What”, “Where”, “When”, “Additional Details” and “Precautionary/ Preparedness Actions” order. The proposal will consolidate all Flash Flood Watch and Flood Watch products into one Flood Watch product. The Flash Flood Watch product will no longer be issued. Instead, information regarding possible flash flooding will be contained in the “What” section of the reformatted message. The FF.A VTEC will be discontinued during the demonstration. For a select number of sites to be announced with any subsequent Service Change Notice, the NWS will no longer use the five types of individual headlines associated with Flood Advisory products (Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories, Arroyo and Small Stream Flood Advisories, Small Stream Flood Advisories, Flood Advisories, and Hydrologic Advisories) within the FA.Y Valid Time Event Code (VTEC). Instead, specific information regarding individual hazards will be provided in the “What” portion of the products. David Soroka 2017-03-28
Experimental Aviation Surface Forecast and Aviation Clouds Forecast Graphics The Aviation Surface Forecast and Aviation Cloud Forecast graphics are snapshot images derived from a subset of the aviation weather forecasts valid for the continental United States (CONUS) and coastal waters used within the Graphical Forecasts for Aviation interactive web-based display. The Aviation Surface Forecast graphics display surface visibility with overlays of surface wind and gusts, predominant precipitation type (i.e., rain, snow, mix, ice, or thunderstorm) coincident with any cloud, and predominant weather type (i.e., haze, fog, smoke, blowing dust/sand). Graphical Airmens Meteorological Information (AIRMETs) for Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Strong Surface Wind are overlaid. The Aviation Cloud Forecast graphics display cloud coverage fraction (few/scattered, broken, overcast) for clouds with bases below Flight Level 180 (FL180 - 18,000 feet above Mean Sea Level (MSL)). Text overlays indicate cloud coverage and height in feet above MSL at that particular location. Clouds above FL180 are indicated as Cirrus or CI above. Graphical AIRMETs for Mountain Obscuration and Icing are overlaid. Forecasted points may not represent conditions in proximity. Kevin Stone 2017-03-20
Proposed changes to the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Enhancements to the operational Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Wayne Presnell 2017-03-03
Proposed Changes to the National Tropical Cyclone Watch and warning (TCV) products for the Atlantic Basin for 2017 Effective on or around June 1, 2017, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand the tropical cyclone watch and warning information available in its National Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning (TCVAT#) products issued for Atlantic tropical cyclones. In past hurricane seasons, the National TCV products for the Atlantic basin contained only the tropical cyclone wind watches and warnings along coastal segments issued by NHC. Beginning in the 2017 hurricane season, the national TCV products from NHC for the Atlantic basin will include all NWS-issued zone-based tropical cyclone wind and storm surge watches and warnings from both NHC and local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and will no longer contain breakpoint information. Wayne Presnell 2017-02-27
Proposed changes to the Surface Analyses and Forecast charts for OPC, TAFB, and WFO HNL The OPC would change the content of its surface analyses, and 24-, 48-, and 96-hour forecast charts. The TAFB would change the content of its surface analyses and 72-hour forecast charts. WFO Honolulu, Hawai’i would change the content of its surface analyses. The proposed change would be for these charts to contain future forecast track information only for extratropical low pressure systems that have, or are forecast to have, hazards associated with them. The hazards displayed will be gale, storm, hurricane-force, developing gale, developing storm, developing hurricane-force, and possible tropical cyclone. Heavy freezing spray information and the ice edge will be included as well. As proposed, the analysis and forecast charts will no longer include past track information, and forecast tracks for highs, extratropical lows with none of the aforementioned hazards associated with them or expected, and tropical cyclones. This change will improve OPC, TAFB, and WFO Honolulu forecaster ability to provide detail in their digital forecasts. For OPC, the change will provide flexibility in the OPC workflow to test and potentially implement a 72-hour forecast chart. Additionally, the change will ensure consistency of information regarding tropical cyclones found through text and graphics supplied by the NHC, Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Darin Figurskey 2017-02-27
Experimental- Enhancement to the Legacy Alaska River Ice Breakup Map The proposed enhancement of the current Alaska River Ice Breakup Map is to make the legacy map available as a geospatially referenced version and as a web service. The enhancement specifically addresses NWS partner needs, including the Alaska Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Management, which requires the web service in order to integrate the Alaska River Ice Breakup Map into their in-house mapping applications to maintain situational awareness of river breakup conditions throughout Alaska. The enhanced web service would also provide enhanced service to additional Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center public and core partners, allowing for more integrated decision making. Rebecca Heim 2017-02-22
Proposed changes to the Operational Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP):Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast (TCF) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has requested the National Weather Service (NWS) update the CCFP to only include high-confidence forecasts and to rename the product the Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Convective Forecast (TCF). Like the CCFP, the TCF is a NWS product collaborated by meteorologists at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) in Kansas City and embedded at the FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) in Warrenton, VA, at the Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) embedded at the FAA’s Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC), and at various airlines and authorized organizations. The TCF is a high confidence graphical representation of forecasted convection meeting specific criteria of coverage, intensity, and echo top height. These forecasts will allow Air Traffic Management (ATM) decision makers to proactively and collaboratively initiate, amend, or terminate planned or active Traffic Flow Management initiatives, resulting in safe and efficient use of the NAS. Clinton Wallace 2017-02-10
Proposed Changes to the Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statement at WFO HNL The following changes to the operational Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statement (HLS) were implemented for the 2015 hurricane season (for the Atlantic Hurricane basin only): 1) HLS is a non-segmented product - No Universal Geographical Code (UGC). 2) HLS contains no Valid Time Event Codes (VTEC). 3) HLS covers land areas only. For the 2017 Hurricane Season, Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu plans to begin issuing the HLS in the same format used by the WFOs covering the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. There will be no changes for Western Region or for the other WFOs in the Pacific Region. Jessica Schauer 2016-12-06
Proposal to operationally implement the Hurricane Local Watch/Warning Product (TCV) at WFO Honolulu The Hurricane Local Watch/Warning product (TCV) was operationally implemented at Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in the Atlantic hurricane basin during the 2015 Hurricane season to accompany changes made to the Hurricane Local Statement. Plans to implement for Western Region and the remainder of Pacific Region are to be determined at a later date. For the 2017 Hurricane Season, WFO Honolulu plans to begin issuing the TCV in the same format used by the WFOs covering the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. There will be no changes for Western Region or for other WFOs in the Pacific Region. Jessica Schauer 2016-12-06
Prototype Winter Storm Severity Index The prototype WSSI utilizes National Weather Service (NWS) gridded forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) for winter weather elements and combines this data with non-meteorological or static information datasets (e.g., climatology, land-use, population) to create a graphical depiction of anticipated overall impacts to society due to winter weather.The experimental WSSI was evaluated internally at several Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) last winter and produced excellent results. In most cases, the predicted WSSI impact was precisely the impact experienced. Feedback on the results was reported back to the originators at WFO Burlington and further improvement in the methodology is expected to yield even better results this upcoming winter – 15 selected WFOs in the Contiguous United States (CONUS) Regions will display the prototype on public facing web pages to gather feedback. Dave Soroka 2016-11-17
Prototype NWS on Instagram Provide the use of Instagram on a limited basis as a prototype through NWSI 10-102. Initial participation includes 2 WFOs per region and National Centers/National Water center. Melinda Bailey 2016-10-19
Experimental Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook Product in the NDFD The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Weather Prediction Center’s (WPC) computes the probability of winter precipitation (snow/sleet) exceeding 0.25 inches (~6 mm) water equivalent over a 24hour period (Valid Time 12Z12Z)for Days 4, 5, 6,and 7. The National Weather Service (NWS) is adding this information to the National DigitalForecast Database (NDFD) as an experimental element. The outlook is prepared twice daily by WPC medium range forecasters. David Soroka 2016-09-20

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