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Listing of EXPERIMENTAL Products
Product Name Brief Description Submitter Date Entered
Experimental GATE Forecast Arrival and departure sectors for major airports, also called gates, are polygonal regions which roughly follow Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) low-level sectors where arrivals and departures to these airports will be routed. It is important to know whether significant weather, such as thunderstorms, could affect large portions of the sectors so that traffic can be rerouted, if needed, to other sectors. The Gate Forecast is a decision support algorithm that uses the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model to determine whether there is the potential for thunderstorm activity in a particular terminal gate. The algorithm initializes with the HRRR composite reflectivity forecasts and then does a time lag ensemble using the previous three HRRR model runs. It creates a grid with the maximum composite reflectivity at each grid point from the three runs (for example, the 1 hr. forecast from the 18UTC run plus the 2 hr. forecast from the 17 UTC run and the 3 hr. forecast from the 16 UTC run). From that grid, a probability factor is computed. Low composite reflectivity equates to low probability. High reflectivity equates to high probability. The algorithm computes the gate sector coverage of these probabilities. If more than 1% of the sector is covered in low probability (.25 chance), the gate is colored yellow. If more than 4% of the sector is covered in high probability (.60 chance), then it is colored red. These are then computed for each forecast time from the HRRR. The product display overlays the sector boundaries on the current radar loop. The sectors are color-coded using a three tiered approach: • Green - no significant weather • Yellow - some significant weather that might affect some portions of the gate • Red - significant weather that could affect large portions of the gate Around each gate is an icon with the gate name and the forecasts for the next nine hours. Clicking on the icon will bring up a dialog box that shows the percent coverage of low (2560) thunderstorm probability, the three HRRR runs used in the forecast and the time of the last update. Mike Bettwy 2015-06-02
Experimental Hurricane Threats and Impacts Web Interface The experimental Hurricane Threats and Impacts Web Interface (HTI-Web) is an internet-based decision-support service designed to help users quickly interface with local hazard information whenever tropical storm and/or hurricane watches and warnings are in effect along the United States East and Gulf coasts, including Puerto Rico. Local threat assessments and corresponding potential impacts information about tropical storm or hurricane wind, storm surge, flooding rain, and tornadoes are provided by coastal Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). Select preparedness information is also provided. Mike Dion 2015-06-03
Experimental Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook The Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook is a graphical probabilistic forecast depicting the probability of winter precipitation (snow/sleet) exceeding 0.25 inches (~6 mm) water equivalent over a 24-hour period. The product is comprised of 4 graphics showing the forecast for Day 4, Day 5, Day 6, and Day 7. The outlook is prepared twice daily by Weather Prediction Center (WPC) medium range forecasters David Novak 2015-06-24
Proposed Expansion of NOAA/NWS Support for Multi-agency Runoff Risk Forecasts The NWS is proposing expansion of NOAA NWS support for these multi-agency runoff risk tools in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Ohio through federal, state, and academic collaboration in 2016-2017. Expansion to the remaining Great Lake states and many other states has been requested following the round of states mentioned above. Included in the proposed expansion, the NWS will upgrade the modeling structure. The NWS will transition from a watershed basin basis to a 4kmx4km gridded model which will increase the spatial resolution of the tool as well as allow a more universal basis across a larger region. This new modeling approach will require new runoff risk analyses and development which will be conducted in collaboration with the agencies listed above. Deliverables will no longer be a CSV file and instead will be a suite of ASCII grids. The grid package will include the calculated runoff risk and model forcings such as observed and forecast precipitation and temperature and may also include model states such as soil temperature, soil moisture, and ground snow water equivalent values. Wendy Pearson 2015-07-17
Experimental Precipitation Potential Index (PPI) in the NDFD The Precipitation Potential Index forecast is now available as a new element in NDFD experimentally. The Precipitation Potential Index (PPI) is used by Weather Forecast Offices to derive 12-hour Probability of Precipitation (PoP12) forecasts and provides detail on precipitation timing at up to hourly resolution Providing PPI via NDFD enables users to make near-term decisions based on finer temporal resolution precipitation information than 12-hour Probability of Precipitation Andy Horvitz 2015-07-24
Experimental NDFD Full Resolution XML Web Service The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains a seamless mosaic of digital weather forecasts from National Weather Service (NWS) field offices and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Full resolution data from NDFD web services will be made available experimentally in order to be consistent with the resolution of data provided in Gridded Binary Data Edition 2 (GRIB2) via file transfer protocol (ftp) or hypertext transfer protocol (http), and that of graphical images produced by the NDFD Map Viewer. Andy Horvitz 2015-07-29
Experimental International Arrival and Departure GATE Forecasts These web-based International Departure Gate Forecast (IDGF) and International Arrival Fix (IAF) forecasts provide categorical convective guidance for specific locations in the National Airspace System (NAS) allowing for more accurate air traffic management. These forecasts will be a collaborative effort between the NOAA/NWS Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) located at the FAA Air Route Traffic Control Centers in Nashua NH (Boston), Ronkonkoma NY (New York) and Leesburg VA (Washington).The purpose of this experimental web page is to provide the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the airlines with expanded weather planning information.This expanded information begins to address a gap in the NWS convective product suite and the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF). Specific forecast products are not available that forecast convective weather at aeronautical arrival and departure fixes (known as ‘gates’). Thunderstorm impact at or near these gates has a significant impact on the flow of aircraft through the NAS causing delays. This will allow critical partners and customers to make more informed decisions regarding the air traffic flow through the NAS. Scott Reynolds 2015-08-28
Experimental Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks The National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center delivers real-time products and information in order to monitor and predict climate variations and their potential associated impacts on timescales from weeks to about 1 year. The objective is to promote effective management of climate risk and a climate-resilient society. Currently, the Climate Prediction Center issues temperature and precipitation outlooks for the Week-2 and 1-month outlook time periods. No current products exist for the intermediate timescale (i.e. Week 3-4) between these two forecast time horizons. The initial release of the experimental Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks will consist of three components. These are (1) a temperature outlook map targeting the combined Week 3-4 outlook, (2) a precipitation outlook map targeting the combined Week 3-4 outlook period and (3) prognostic map discussion (PMD) text explaining the rationale for the forecast. Jon Gottschalck 2015-08-28
Experimental Rip Current Risk Graphic Graphical Rip Current Risk derived from the Surf Zone Forecast. Wayne Presnell 2015-09-02
Experimental Gulf Stream Forecast The Gulf Stream Forecast is a 3 hourly forecast for areas along the Gulf Stream as output from the NWPS model from the WFO Miami Forecast Office. The graphic display shows the Gulf Stream current, significant wave height, wind speed, and peak wave period and direction in graphical formats. There are 4 separate geographical areas, and all the graphs can be stepped in time or looped on the webpage. Melinda Bailey 2015-09-11
Experimental Lake Effect Snow Warning Polygons The experimental Lake Effect Snow Warning (LES) polygon areas delineate the locations of highest impact of the LES. As the lake effect shifts, polygon areas will change spatially and temporally to best delineate the areas of highest impact over the course of the LES event (for example, snowfall rate, blizzard-like conditions, total snowfall). Issuance of the product would be based upon forecaster confidence of reaching LES Warning criteria: 7 inches or more in 12 hours, or 9 inches or more in 24 hours. Jason Franklin 2015-09-17
Experimental Days 3-7 Winter Storm Threat The purpose of the Experimental Days 3-7 Winter Storm Threat product is to graphically display location and level of winter storm threats in the extended portion of the forecast 3 to 7 days in the future. This threat level combines forecaster confidence and potential impact. Rick Watling 2015-11-23
Prototype Texas Regional Rainfall Webpage The Texas Regional Rainfall webpage will display the most current quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) produced by the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). Four maps containing QPE for durations of 24-hour, 48-hour, 72-hour, and weekly will be available each day for a region of Texas containing the County Warning Areas of the National Weather Service offices in Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Austin/San Antonio, and Houston/Galveston. There will be a built-in archive function on the webpage that will allow the user to quickly obtain QPE maps for past dates. Melinda Bailey 2015-12-15
Experimental Graphical Forecasts for Aviation In May 2015 the National Weather Service received a formal request from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the NWS to cease production of textual Area Forecasts (FAs), contingent upon the provision of equivalent meteorological information in support of aviation.The Graphical Forecasts for Aviation include observations and forecasts valid for the continental United States. Observational data and warnings are time synchronized and available by the hour for the current time and the prior six hours. Hourly model data and forecasts, including National Digital Forecast Data (NDFD), are available to 15 hours in the future. Wind, icing and turbulence forecasts are available in 3000 ft. increments from the surface up to 18000 ft. MSL, and in 6000 ft. increments from 18,000 MSL to FL420 (42,000 ft. MSL). Turbulence forecasts are also broken into LO (below 18,000 MSL) and HI (at or above 18,000 MSL) graphics. A maximum icing graphic and maximum wind velocity graphic (regardless of altitude) are also available.Multiple fields of interest are combined in categories that the user is able to select from the top level Weather menu. The data for each category is determined by the time period, observations (current time and the prior six hours) and forecasts (valid up to 15 hours in the future). Additional information is available in text format when mouse-clicking on the map or using the hover function. The “Configure” menu enables the user to customize the satellite and radar displays in addition to choosing parameters for the observations and aviation advisories displayed. Imagery, observations, and forecast graphics are overlaid on high-resolution basemaps from ESRI, including colored relief, satellite and street views. Overlays include navigational aids, airports, and heliports for the entire United States. More detail is revealed as you zoom in and individual layers can be turned on or off independently. Debra Blondin 2016-01-05

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