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Experimental GATE Forecast
Approved to Extend Comment Pd
Data Mining Tool
Outreach / Education
All Forecast Regions
Arrival and departure sectors for major airports, also called gates, are polygonal regions which roughly follow Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) low-level sectors where arrivals and departures to these airports will be routed. It is important to know whether significant weather, such as thunderstorms, could affect large portions of the sectors so that traffic can be rerouted, if needed, to other sectors. The Gate Forecast is a decision support algorithm that uses the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model to determine whether there is the potential for thunderstorm activity in a particular terminal gate. The algorithm initializes with the HRRR composite reflectivity forecasts and then does a time lag ensemble using the previous three HRRR model runs. It creates a grid with the maximum composite reflectivity at each grid point from the three runs (for example, the 1 hr. forecast from the 18UTC run plus the 2 hr. forecast from the 17 UTC run and the 3 hr. forecast from the 16 UTC run). From that grid, a probability factor is computed. Low composite reflectivity equates to low probability. High reflectivity equates to high probability. The algorithm computes the gate sector coverage of these probabilities. If more than 1% of the sector is covered in low probability (.25 chance), the gate is colored yellow. If more than 4% of the sector is covered in high probability (.60 chance), then it is colored red. These are then computed for each forecast time from the HRRR. The product display overlays the sector boundaries on the current radar loop. The sectors are color-coded using a three tiered approach: • Green - no significant weather • Yellow - some significant weather that might affect some portions of the gate • Red - significant weather that could affect large portions of the gate Around each gate is an icon with the gate name and the forecasts for the next nine hours. Clicking on the icon will bring up a dialog box that shows the percent coverage of low (25<TS<60) and high (TS>60) thunderstorm probability, the three HRRR runs used in the forecast and the time of the last update.
Product information and survey access
Point of Contact
Mike Bettwy firstname.lastname@example.org
Document (e.g. PDD)
Comment Start Date:
2019-03-20 Comment End Date: 2019-04-18
2546_signed approval and VDI (1).pdf
August 2018 comment/review is second extension of comment period (through 9/30/16). Updated with refined algorithm and ability for CWSU forecasters to log in and edit time period.
Last edit date to this meta-data: 2019-04-11