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Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities
Data Mining Tool
Outreach / Education
The Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities graphics show probabilities, in percent, of storm surge exceeding 2 feet through 25 feet, at 1 foot intervals (e.g., the probabilities in percent, of storm surge exceeding 2 feet, 3 feet, 4 feet..., 25 feet). These storm surge graphics are based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and accounts for track, size, and intensity errors based on historical errors. This product is intended to provide users with information which enhances their ability to make preparedness decisions specific to their own situations. Customers have requested additional tropical cyclone probabilistic information, and the National Research Council's Fair Weather Report encourages probabilistic products. The emergency management community is the primary target audience. However, this product will also be widely used by other federal, state, and local government agencies; the media; maritime interests; and the general public.
Product information and survey access
Point of Contact
Document (e.g. PDD)
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Comment Start Date:
0000-00-00 Comment End Date: 0000-00-00
David B. Caldwell
Transition to Operational
>5 ft became operational in 2008; the remainder of the elements became operational in 2009. PDD updated in 2011 to include the addition of the grib2 data to the NDGD and the update the links. Graphics are available on the nhc webpage. Gridded data is available on NOAAPORT and on NDGD in GRIB2 format.
Last edit date to this meta-data: 2019-07-08