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Probabilistic Flood Outlook Summary (PFOS)
Approved for Prototype
Data Mining Tool
Outreach / Education
The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Grand Forks, North Dakota will demonstrate a prototype of the Probabilistic Flood Outlook Summary (PFOS) through May 31, 2019. The PFOS is a prototype which depicts the probabilities of reaching certain river stages based on the standard probabilities of 95%, 90%, 75%, 50%, 25%, 10%, and 5% in an improved graphical format. This prototype is intended to give users an improved representation of the flood risk at mainstem forecast points along the Red River of the North for the next 90 days during the spring snowmelt season. The prototype PFOS graphics on the WFO Grand Forks' website (https://www.weather.gov/fgf/PFOS) will be updated four times to coincide with the spring flood outlooks to be issued by the North Central River Forecast Center (Chanhassen, MN) and WFO Grand Forks in late January, mid-February, early March, and late March. The information used in the PFOS graphics is the same information that can be found in the current Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) text product and in the "Chance of Exceeding" probabilistic graphics on AHPS. The PFOS was developed to improve communication of flood risk information, based on input from NWS partners.
Product information and survey access
Point of Contact
Ernie Wells firstname.lastname@example.org
Document (e.g. PDD)
(OPTIONAL) If you have a sample image, please upload.
Comment Start Date:
2019-02-19 Comment End Date: 2019-05-31
Approved for prototype implementation - 2/18/19
8377_signed approval memo prototype PFOS.pdf
Last edit date to this meta-data: 2019-02-20