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SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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All Forecast Regions
Addition of risk graphics for individual convective threats in the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 2 Outlook effective on or about January 28, 2020 The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) will expand the suite of probabilistic forecast graphics to include individual Tornado Risk, Hail Risk, and Damaging Wind Risk to the Day 2 Convective Outlook (WMO header: ACUS02 KWNS, AWIPS ID: SWODY2) on or about January 28, 2020. These graphics are currently part of the operational suite that are provided in the Day 1 Convective Outlook, while the current Day 2 Convective Outlook includes only the (total severe) probabilistic graphic that coincides with the categorical outlook. Research to operations and improvements in numerical forecast guidance, particularly with certain convection-allowing weather forecast models, are providing necessary confidence in the forecasting of these individual hazards into the “Day 2” time frame. These improvements have paved the way for SPC to issue forecasts of individual hazard probabilities for tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail potential, along with a separate probability for significant severe, if forecast, for each hazard type. These individual hazard probabilistic forecasts will replace the current “total severe” probabilistic forecast, fully mirroring the types of output from the Day 1 Convective Outlook, in terms of the Categorical risk forecast and the three individual probabilistic hazard forecasts. The probability to categorical conversion table, currently used for SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook that can be found on this webpage https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html, will also be used for the Day 2 individual hazard probability to categorical conversions. The total categorical severe outlook will be driven by the highest probabilities in any of the individual tornado, damaging wind, or hail forecast.
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Last edit date to this meta-data: 2019-11-14